Afghan insurgents try to wait out NATO: analyst
AFP
WASHINGTON - Taliban insurgents are exploiting popular frustration with the Afghan government and trying to hold out until NATO-led forces leave the country, a top US general's former advisor said on Thursday.
"The Taliban strategy, looking at from here, seems to be one of exhaustion to basically wait us out until we get tired and go home," David Kilcullen, who advised the US military on counter-insurgency strategy in Iraq.
"You can see in the way they're organizing the population, intimidating the population, not fighting the coalition forces, not fighting the Afghan government -- but just trying to sort of keep their powder dry and wait for another day," he said.
Kilcullen, a former Australian army officer and author on irregular warfare, was credited with helping shape a successful US counter-insurgency strategy in Iraq under the then commander, General David Petraeus, now head of US Central Command.
"Most insurgents defeat the counter-insurgent by causing the home government to lose confidence and give up," he said.
"They're not going to defeat us on the ground in Afghanistan. But they could defeat us in London, in Washington, in Ottawa and cause the international community to pull out."
Breaking the intimidating influence of the insurgents means winning a war of perceptions among Afghans, but the Kabul government's reputation for corruption poses a threat to the international effort, Kilcullen said.
"You have to work with a legitimate Afghan government, and that's one of the critical weaknesses we have right now," he said.
The Taliban seeks to exploit discontent with Kabul and take advantage of a vacuum at the local level where government authorities are often absent or ineffective, he said.
One Taliban commander has even set up a panel to hear complaints from Afghans about his forces, and promised swift action if one of his troops was at fault, he said.
Kilcullen's comments came as the top commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, General David McChrystal, prepares a pivotal assessment of the war effort amid speculation he may press for more US combat troops -- a politically-charged issue in Washington.
Kilcullen said more US and NATO troops were needed to prevail in the Afghan fight, but it was impossible to find enough manpower to cover the entire country, he said.
"We do not have the forces available to secure the whole country at the level we need to. What we need to start doing is a fairly ruthless triage," he said, looking at "where are we, where do we need to be."
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