In Lebanon, all roads lead once again to Damascus

"The Lebanese went too far in their hostility toward Damascus and have realised the international community has since let them down," said Fadia Kiwan, head of political science at Beirut's Saint Joseph University.
"The Lebanese are confused," Kiwan told AFP. "Countries like the United States, which mobilised them against Syria in the days of former president George W. Bush, changed course after the election of President Barack Obama."
Prime Minister Saad Hariri, son of the slain ex-premier, is readying for his second visit to Syria since taking office in November. He had initially accused Assad of ordering the February 14, 2005 Beirut bombing that killed his father.
Once Lebanon's main powerbroker, Syria has consistently denied involvement in the murder but pulled its troops out of Lebanon in April 2005, ending 29 years of military and political dominance over its smaller neighbour.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy made a breakthrough with his 2008 visit to Damascus, the first such diplomatic trip by a Western head of state since Hariri's assassination.
US officials have also increased their stops in Syria, and Washington recently announced it is planning to send its first ambassador to Damascus since 2005.
Influential Druze chief Walid Jumblatt, formerly one of Lebanon's most outspoken critics of Syria, last week visited Assad in Damascus for the first time in years, saying the past was "over."
Jumblatt had previously accused Syria of the Hariri murder, branding Assad "the dictator of Damascus... a savage... an Israeli product, a liar... and a criminal."
He had also blamed Syria for the 1977 assassination of his father Kamal Jumblatt, but last month said his attack on Assad was "unworthy and unusual, unsuited to the ethics of politics even during a quarrel."
Jumblatt began to show signs of an about-face after last June's general election, when he defected from a Western-backed parliamentary majority led by Hariri to reconcile with the rival Hezbollah camp backed by Syria and Iran.
Tensions between the two camps led to week-long battles in May 2008 that left more than 100 dead and brought the country to the brink of civil war.
But as regional and international politics shift, leaders like Hariri and Jumblatt have been forced to soften their stance against their more powerful neighbour.
Observers say Hariri is caught in a delicate balancing act and sources close to the premier have said his main backer, Saudi Arabia, has urged him to "bury the hatchet" with Syria.
"Hariri for one has unequivocally distanced himself from his allies in the (anti-Syrian) parliamentary majority through his truce with the Syrians," Kiwan said.
But many in the Hariri-led camp fear the premier's rapprochement with Damascus is a sign Syria has regained its influence over Lebanon.
"Today, Damascus has made it clear that it defeated Washington in the battle for Lebanon," said Ghassan al-Azzi, a Lebanese University political science professor.
"Syria still sees Lebanon as its back yard and that view is now reinforced by the fact that Western governments are requesting Damascus help maintain stability in Lebanon" and neighbouring countries like Iraq, Azzi told AFP.
Analyst Emile Khoury voiced similar sentiments in a commentary published in the French-language daily L'Orient-Le Jour.
"Syria is back on track" in its involvement in Lebanese politics, Khoury wrote.
"The days when Syria used the stick in Lebanon are over as neither its army nor its intelligence services are present in Lebanon," he added. "This time around, Damascus is using the carrot.
"It is no longer a question of giving the orders in Lebanon, but rather how Syria participates in the Lebanese government: by proxy (through its ally Hezbollah) or by negotiation" with Hariri or Jumblatt, he wrote.
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