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"Cairene conventional wisdom holds that Gamal wants the job, despite his repeated denials to the contrary," then US ambassador Francis Ricciardone wrote in a May 2007 secret cable devoted to the presidential succession in Egypt, released on Monday by WikiLeaks.
"It is hard to argue that Gamal is not being groomed for the presidency," the cable says, noting his "increasingly robust role" in the ruling National Democratic Party.
"Many in the Egyptian elite see his succession as positive, as his likely continuation of the current status quo would serve their business and political interests."
But the military elite may think otherwise, the cable suggests.
"A key stumbling block for a Gamal candidacy could be the military," writes Ricciardone, who notes that the four Egyptian presidents since the 1952 coup that overthrew the monarchy came from military ranks, including Hosni Mubarak.
The issue of succession has triggered passions in Egypt, particularly in March when the 82-year-old president underwent surgery to remove his gall bladder, six years after surgery to repair a slipped disc.
It has also come back to the surface after the ruling party clinched 420 of 508 seats in the November 28 and December 5 parliamentary elections, which monitors said were fraught with irregularities.
"Due to the paranoia of the Egyptian dictatorship, no other name can safely or respectfully" be raised, than Gamal's, he adds in the cable, in which he also describes the incumbent president as a "pharaoh."
Unlike his father, Gamal was never an officer "and we believe he did not complete his compulsory service," writes Ricciardone.
The military could help him along or block his efforts.
Long-term Defence Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi "could play a role in clearing the way for Gamal if he calculates that is in the best interests of the country."
"Conversely he could also be a key player in preventing Gamal's ascendance," the ambassador wrote.
"We have heard some limited reports of Tantawi's increasing frustration and disenchantment with Gamal," he said in the cable devoted to the presidential succession in Egypt.
But he also warns that Egypt's next president could have an "initial anti-American tone in his public rhetoric" to win over the Egyptian street and predicts he will "inevitably be politically weaker than (Hosni) Mubarak."
Two years later Ricciardone's successor in Cairo, Margaret Scobey, wrote in a cable released last week that the incumbent president is likely to seek re-election next year and serve for the rest of his life.
In the May 2007 cable Ricciardone had given a similar assessment.
Mubarak "is on record as saying, in a November 2006 speech, that he planned to remain president 'as long as I have a heart that beats and breath in my body.'"
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"It is hard to argue that Gamal is not being groomed for the presidency," the cable says, noting his "increasingly robust role" in the ruling National Democratic Party.
"Many in the Egyptian elite see his succession as positive, as his likely continuation of the current status quo would serve their business and political interests."
But the military elite may think otherwise, the cable suggests.
"A key stumbling block for a Gamal candidacy could be the military," writes Ricciardone, who notes that the four Egyptian presidents since the 1952 coup that overthrew the monarchy came from military ranks, including Hosni Mubarak.
The issue of succession has triggered passions in Egypt, particularly in March when the 82-year-old president underwent surgery to remove his gall bladder, six years after surgery to repair a slipped disc.
It has also come back to the surface after the ruling party clinched 420 of 508 seats in the November 28 and December 5 parliamentary elections, which monitors said were fraught with irregularities.
"Due to the paranoia of the Egyptian dictatorship, no other name can safely or respectfully" be raised, than Gamal's, he adds in the cable, in which he also describes the incumbent president as a "pharaoh."
Unlike his father, Gamal was never an officer "and we believe he did not complete his compulsory service," writes Ricciardone.
The military could help him along or block his efforts.
Long-term Defence Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi "could play a role in clearing the way for Gamal if he calculates that is in the best interests of the country."
"Conversely he could also be a key player in preventing Gamal's ascendance," the ambassador wrote.
"We have heard some limited reports of Tantawi's increasing frustration and disenchantment with Gamal," he said in the cable devoted to the presidential succession in Egypt.
But he also warns that Egypt's next president could have an "initial anti-American tone in his public rhetoric" to win over the Egyptian street and predicts he will "inevitably be politically weaker than (Hosni) Mubarak."
Two years later Ricciardone's successor in Cairo, Margaret Scobey, wrote in a cable released last week that the incumbent president is likely to seek re-election next year and serve for the rest of his life.
In the May 2007 cable Ricciardone had given a similar assessment.
Mubarak "is on record as saying, in a November 2006 speech, that he planned to remain president 'as long as I have a heart that beats and breath in my body.'"
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