No-deal Brexit will cost Ireland 73,000 jobs, Central Bank warns



LONDON (dpa)- Ireland could see more than 70,000 job losses over the next two years if faced with a "disorderly, no deal Brexit," the Central Bank of Ireland warned on Friday.
In its Quarterly Bulletin, the Central Bank provided a forecast for the Irish economy based on the two possible Brexit scenarios.




"In the event of a disorderly, no deal Brexit, the key channels through which the economy will be affected will be through shocks to the exchange rate, trade, consumption and investment, leading to a marked deterioration in economic conditions," the bank said.
If Britain and the EU can reach an agreement, it predicted that the GDP will be at 5 per cent in 2019, 4.3 per cent in 2020 and 3.9 per cent in 2021.
A no-deal Brexit, however, is forecast to reduce GDP growth to 4.7 per cent in 2019, 0.8 per cent in 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021.
It added that around 73,000 jobs will be lost by the end of 2021 in the event of a no-deal, with unemployment forecast to rise to 5.8 per cent in 2020 and 6.9 per cent in 2021.
The release of the Central Bank's bulletin came shortly after a joint statement from British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar saying that they can "see a pathway to a possible deal" on Brexit.
The two met for what the statement said were "detailed and constructive," talks on Thursday.
Speaking to reporters late Thursday, Varadkar said he was "absolutely convinced" that both Ireland and Britain want to find an agreement, adding that it was still possible to finalize one by October 31.
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Friday, October 11th 2019
dpa
           


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